深圳机场(000089.CN)

Shenzhen Airport:July international passenger volume growth may be above 50%

时间:16-08-10 00:00    来源:瑞银证券

July passenger vol. +7.5% YoY; int'l passenger vol. continued high growth.

The company's aircraft movements/passenger volume increased a respective 5.2%/7.5% YoY in July, with slower YoY growth than in June (5.4%/9.3%). We attribute theslower growth to the rainy weather. Cargo & mail volume increased 11.3% YoY, muchquicker than in July 2015. Notably, we estimate international passenger volume grewmore than 50% YoY and contributed 6% of total passenger volume, significantlyhigher than 4.2% in 2015.

H116 earnings outlook: 20%+ profit growth likely.

We estimate the company is likely to maintain c20% profit growth in H116, mainlybecause: 1) passenger volume recovered notably in Q216 (H116 volume YoY growth of4.7%, much better than 2.7% in Q116); and 2) financial expenses may declinesignificantly or turn into financial gains in H116 due to the conversion of convertiblebonds in May 2015 and redemption of corporate bonds in October.

Outlook: We think peak-hour movements may have risen at end-July.

1) The company's terminals and runways have ample capacity and we estimate peakhourmovements may have risen at end-July and are likely to rise from 48 to 50 inAugust, with an upper limit of 60. 2) With new slots to be mainly allocated tointernational routes, we estimate international passenger volume could account for10% of total passenger volume in 2020, up from 4.2% in 2015. 3) Given the lack ofmajor capex in 2016-18, we look for a core profit CAGR of 10%+ over this period,with ROE likely to rise from 4.6% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2018.

Valuation: Maintain Rmb11 PT and Buy rating.

We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb11 (WACC 7.3%) and Buy rating.