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Shenzhen Airport:Passenger volume growth accelerated in June;peak-hour movements to rise in August

发布时间:2016-07-11    研究机构:瑞银证券

Passenger volume +9.3% YoY in June; continually quicker growth since March.

The company's aircraft movements/passenger volume increased a respective 5.4%/9.3% YoY in June, with continually quicker YoY growth since March. We estimateinternational passenger volume and cargo & mail volume increased 20%/12.4% YoY,respectively, much quicker than YoY growth since 2011.

H116 earnings outlook: 20%+ profit growth likely.

We believe the company will maintain 20%+ profit growth in H116, mainly because: 1)passenger volume recovered notably in Q216 (H116 volume YoY growth at 4.7%,much better than 2.7% in Q116); and 2) financial expenses may decline significantly orturn into financial gains in 2016 due to conversion of convertible bonds in May 2015and redemption of corporate bonds in October.

Outlook: We expect peak-hour movements to rise to 50 in August.

1) The company's terminals and runways have ample capacity and we forecast peakhourmovements to rise from 48 to 50 in August and reach 60 in 2019. 2) With newslots to be mainly allocated to international routes, we estimate international passengervolume could account for 10% of total passenger volume in 2020, up from 4.2% in2015. 3) Given the lack of major capex in 2016-18, we look for a core profit CAGR of10%+ over this period, with ROE likely to rise from 4.6% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2018.

Valuation: Maintain Rmb11 PT and Buy rating.

We maintain our DCF-based price target of Rmb11 (WACC 7.3%) and Buy rating.

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